quinta-feira, novembro 03, 2011

The devil in the deep-sea oil

The Economist

Unless the government restrains itself, an oil boom risks feeding Brazil’s vices

DEEP in the South Atlantic, a vast industrial operation is under way that Brazil’s leaders say will turn their country into an oil power by the end of this decade. If the ambitious plans of Petrobras, the national oil company, come to fruition, by 2020 Brazil will be producing 5m barrels per day, much of it from new offshore fields. That might make Brazil a top-five source of oil.

Managed wisely, this boom has the potential to do great good. Brazil’s president, Dilma Rousseff, wants to use the oil money to pay for better education, health and infrastructure. She also wants to use the new fields to create a world-beating oil-services industry. But the bonanza also risks feeding some Brazilian vices: a spendthrift and corrupt political system; an over-mighty state and over-protected domestic market; and neglect of the virtues of saving, investment and training.

So it is worrying that there is far more debate in Brazil about how to spend the oil money than about how to develop the fields. If Brazil’s economy is to benefit from oil, rather than be dominated by it, a big chunk of the proceeds should be saved offshore and used to offset future recessions. But the more immediate risks lie in how the oil is extracted.

The government has established a complicated legal framework for the fields. It has vested their ownership in Pré-Sal Petróleo, a new state body whose job is merely to collect and spend the oil money. It has granted an operating monopoly to Petrobras (although the company can strike production-sharing agreements with private partners). The rationale was that, since everyone now knows where the oil is, the lion’s share of the profits should go to the nation. But this glides over the complexity in developing fields that lie up to 300km (190 miles) offshore, beneath 2km of water and up to 5km of salt and rock.

To develop the new fields, and build onshore facilities including refineries, Petrobras plans to invest $45 billion a year for the next five years, the largest investment programme of any oil firm in the world. That is too much, too soon, both for Petrobras and for Brazil—especially because the government has decreed that a large proportion of the necessary equipment and supplies be produced at home.

How to be Norway, not Venezuela

By demanding so much local content, the government may in fact be favouring some of the leading foreign oil-service companies. Many would have set up in Brazil anyway; now, with less price competition from abroad, they will find it easier to charge over the odds. Seeking to ramp up production so fast, and relying so heavily on local supplies, also risks starving non-oil businesses of capital and skilled labour (which is in desperately short supply). Oil money is already helping to drive up Brazil’s currency, the real, hurting manufacturers struggling with high taxes and poor infrastructure.

When it comes to oil, striking the right balance between the state and the private sector, and between national content and foreign expertise, is notoriously tricky. But it can be done. To kick-start an oil-services industry, Norway calibrated its national-content rules realistically in scope and duration, required foreign suppliers to work closely with local firms and forced Statoil, its national oil company, to bid against rivals to develop fields. Above all, it invested in training the workforce.

But Brazilians need only to look at Mexico’s Pemex to see the politicised bloat that can follow an oil boom—or at Venezuela to see how oil can corrupt a country. Petrobras is not Pemex. Thanks to a meritocratic culture, and the discipline of having some of its stock traded, Petrobras is a leader in deep-sea oil. But operating as a monopolist is a poor way to maintain that edge. Happily, too, Brazil is not Venezuela. Its leaders can prove it by changing the rules to be more Norwegian.

5 comentários:

Anônimo disse...

Toda vez que vejo uma entrevista com o socialista Eike Batista fico impressionado com como é fácil ficar rico arrancando o que o brasil tem debaixo do chão.Até um idiota consegue!!

Anônimo disse...

O Lulinha vai sim fazer o Brasil se parecer mais com a Venezuela. É a cara dele. Está inclusive trazendo o pessoal do palhaço de Caracas pra trabalhar com a Petróleo Brasileiro. Que vcs acham que vai acontecer? Noruega? Nao nos próximos milenios...

gustavosauer disse...

Se o socialismo continuar avançando, e o lulapetismo se consolidar de vez, alguém realmente acredita que esse petróleo vai gerar alguma riqueza sustentável? Continuaremos a ter uma gasolina relativamente cara e esse dinheiro será direcionado para os amigos do rei. A história já demonstrou inúmeras vezes que hidrocarbonetos não possuem a capacidade mágica de desenvolver um país.

Pablo disse...

Eu acho que acabaram os poços de pré-sal do Brasil, todos foram achado no governo Lula, um atrás do outro....até a dilma se eleger depois se cessaram-se as fontes. Há muit tempo não escuto falar em nova descoberta do ouro negro abaixo do pré-sal. Vai lá saber, aliás nós sabemos.

Anônimo disse...

Venezuela, óbvio. Voces realmenta acahm que o cabidaço, as trocas de favores e o nacionalismo exacerbado irão acabar?

Hoje ninguém mais sabe viver sem ajuda do Estado. Daqui a pouo vão querer que o Estado compre iPad e DVD player pra todo mundo.

Por mais que se fale, isso entra por um ouvido e sai pelo outro.